This is the third annual installment of what I think of as the "guys I got wrong" piece. I'll look at players who've become much better big leaguers than I ever forecast them to be, and try to explain where I made mistakes in evaluating them.
In the past two editions, I discussed only players I had offered strong opinions about, saying they wouldn't be as successful as they became. This year I've included some players I didn't discuss much as prospects or young major leaguers, errors of omission that are errors nonetheless.
Lucroy made my top 10 Brewers prospects list just once, going into 2010, the first year I did a full top-10 ranking for all 30 teams. That list turned out to be well-stocked with future big leaguers:
1. Brett Lawrie, 2B
2. Alcides Escobar, SS
3. Eric Arnett, RHP
4. Kyle Heckathorn, RHP
5. Jonathan Lucroy, C
6. Wily Peralta, RHP
7. Lorenzo Cain, CF
8. Jake Odorizzi, RHP
9. Kentrail Davis, LF
10. Zach Braddock, LHP
Arnett, Heckathorn and Davis had just been drafted and the shine hadn't come off them yet; the real stars of that draft class turned out to be seventh-rounder Khris Davis, 16th-rounder Scooter Gennett and 22nd-rounder Mike Fiers.
In Lucroy's case, the stats told a more accurate story than the scouting reports did.