NFL Week 6 betting first look: Another chance for Falcons

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Entering Week 6, it's worth noting that the Dolphins didn't lose a game, and they have one of their better opportunities to notch a win this season when they host the Redskins in Week 6. As Washington was getting manhandled by New England on Sunday, the betting market moved from as high as Miami +5.5 to the current +3.5 number. In Week 9, the Dolphins host the Jets, and in Week 16, they get the Bengals. The argument could be made that their best chance is ultimately next Sunday, coming off of their bye week and facing a quarterback situation in Washington that is messy at best.

But is +3.5 fair? It's close. My projection is Dolphins +2.7. If I had to take a side, it would be Miami's, but fortunately I'm not forced to. This is still a team that is 0-4 ATS and has been outscored by 137 points. Bye week or not, it still has the inferior roster. I'm staying away -- good luck if you get involved.

There is one game, however, that I won't be staying away from in Week 6.

Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Week 6 line I'm investing in now

Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) at Arizona Cardinals

This is a historical account of my relationship with the 2019 Atlanta Falcons. In the offseason, I bet the Atlanta over 8.5 season wins and a Super Bowl future at 40-1. They are both losers. In Week 1, I jumped all over the Falcons +4 in Minnesota. The Vikings scored the first 28 points of the contest and won with ease. While it's important not to overreact to any single result, let alone one in the season opener, I wasn't feeling great about my Super Bowl wager.