Prime-time Parlay: FPI predictions for the biggest games of NFL Week 3

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There was neither suspense nor a big-time payout (or any payout) for the Week 2 version of Prime-time Parlay. The Ravens' Thursday night loss to the Bengals burst the PTP balloon almost immediately, and the Eagles' loss to the Bucs hammered home the difficulty of winning a five-team parlay.

Perhaps Week 3 will be the charm.

As a reminder, Prime-time Parlay is all about the best games: Thursday, Sunday and Monday's prime-time games and the top 1 p.m. and 4 p.m. Sunday matchups. Straight-up picks, but you gotta hit all five. Then we calculate how much you'd earn for the parlay, utilizing Westgate's money lines.

Via ESPN's Football Power Index, Prime-time Parlay tells you the analytics-based predictions for the meetings of greatest national import, offering the smart picks for the games you'll be watching. (All NFL point spreads and money lines can be found here).

Total payout for Week 3 Prime-time Parlay (selecting all FPI-projected winners in five games): $1026.43 on $100 wager

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (8:20 p.m. ET Thursday, NFL Network)

Money line: Browns -170
FPI projection: Browns win by 3.8 points

Picking the Browns to ... win? Here's the thing: The Browns' defense is kind of legit. It has the star power, and FPI believes in it as the fifth-ranked defense going forward. And after all, that defense is facing a rookie quarterback. -- Seth Walder

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (1:00 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

Money line: Falcons -160
FPI projection: Falcons win by 5.1 points

Two games in, we have to be open to the idea that the Saints -- with their struggling defense -- might not be particularly good. Losing to Tampa Bay and barely beating the Browns isn't confidence-inspiring. -- Seth Walder

Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

Money line: Seahawks -125
FPI projection: Seahawks win by 1.3 points

FPI doesn't even know that Seattle has the coolest punter in all the land. If it had seen Michael Dickson's drop kick, it might add a half-point to Seattle's special-teams rating (currently average) just because. -- Seth Walder

New England Patriots at Detroit Lions (8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC)

Money line: Patriots -310
FPI projection: Patriots win by 3.9 points

The Patriots have had the 16th-most efficient offense so far this year. You want to bet on that trend continuing? Neither does FPI, which thinks the Patriots -- from this point forward -- will have the fifth-best offense. -- Seth Walder

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8:30 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN)

Money line: Steelers -120
FPI projection: Steelers win by 1.0 points

What do you trust: Ryan Fitzpatrick's 52.9 career QBR or his 95.7 in two games this season? Honestly, Fitzpatrick and the Bucs have been so good that this one is close, but FPI will lean on the larger sample for both team. -- Seth Walder

Final Parlay: Browns, Falcons, Seahawks, Patriots, Steelers

For more from ESPN Analytics, visit the ESPN Analytics Index.